On September 13, 2025, the Ecuadorian government eliminated the diesel subsidy, setting the price per gallon at USD 2.80. The measure, promoted by the president, seeks to organize public finances and allocate resources to social programs and strategic infrastructure. However, its impact goes far beyond fiscal accounts and is already being felt in the logistics chain and international trade.

Diesel is the engine that drives the Ecuadorian economy. As its price increases, so do land and sea transport costs, which directly affects exports of flagship products such as bananas, shrimp, cocoa, and flowers. Although demand in markets such as the United States, Europe, and Asia remains stable, the competitiveness of these goods could come under pressure from neighboring countries that operate at lower costs. Domestically, trucks, buses, and tractors are also affected, leading to adjustments in commercial and public transportation fares. This pressure will inevitably be passed on in part to the final prices of basic goods.

The effect is not limited to what Ecuador sells to the world, it also affects imports. The country depends on inputs such as fuel, machinery, and industrial products, and with the rise in diesel prices, import processes become more expensive, affecting sectors that already operate on reduced margins. For many companies, it will be a challenge to absorb these additional costs without passing them on entirely to consumers, which creates risks of inflation, especially in food and transportation.

The government has announced that diesel prices will be adjusted monthly until February 2026, with estimates of $2.74 in January and $2.72 in February, following the international WTI oil benchmark. At the same time, it seeks to increase domestic crude oil production from 470,000 to 500,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025. If that goal is met, dependence on imported fuels will be reduced and, in the medium term, logistics costs could stabilize.

The business sector recognizes the need to reorganize the subsidy system, but also expresses concern about the additional costs it will face. Analysts warn that the impact on basic products may be limited to cents per unit, but that strategic sectors such as transportation and agriculture will suffer much greater pressure. This poses a challenge of adaptation in an international environment that offers no respite.

The elimination of the diesel subsidy marks a turning point for Ecuador. While it represents a step toward fiscal sustainability, it also forces companies to rethink how they operate. Optimizing routes, adopting cleaner technologies, and diversifying markets are not just options, but necessary strategies for maintaining competitiveness. In times of uncertainty, business resilience will be the key to turning a challenge into an opportunity.