What changed in April: the ceasefire that didn’t open the strait, and the air cargo crisis that did arrive

In March, the headline was the collapse of traffic and oil at USD 126. In April, the story is different: the April 8 ceasefire happened and changed nothing operationally. The Iranian Parliament is advancing legislation to place the strait under the authority of its armed forces and institutionalize toll collection, while the Iranian executive negotiates through Pakistan without reaching an agreement. On May 3, a bulk carrier was attacked off Sirik — incident number 24 since the conflict began. Brent closed the week at USD 126. The news in April is not the price of crude, which was already a story in March. The news is that the ceasefire didn’t change the landscape, and that this is now producing consequences felt directly in air cargo.

Executive Action: Review the sea/air mix for perishable exports. Activate surcharge clauses in current freight contracts. Model fertilizer costs into H2 2026 production budgets before closing seasonal price negotiations.

New Signal in April (Jet Fuel): IATA projects flight cancellations in Europe starting late May due to aviation fuel shortages. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 40% of Europe’s jet fuel imports. Prices have doubled since the conflict began. For Ecuador: flowers, premium shrimp moving by air, and any perishable cargo bound for Europe now face operational risk with a concrete timeline.

The Second Wave Nobody Is Modeling: Urea costs rose 28% in March. Approximately 33% of global fertilizer trade transits through Hormuz. The impact reaches the field with a 2-to-3-month lag. Second-half agricultural output is already affected, even if the bill hasn’t arrived yet.