By Volker Meinlschmidt

2025 was a revealing year.
 Not because of growth figures or inflation curves, but because it showed with clarity that the rules of global trade are changing and that not all countries are reacting in time.

Over the past twelve months, the global economy has undergone a silent but profound reconfiguration. Supply chains have been reshaped. Logistics has stopped being a supporting function and has become a strategic asset. While some countries consolidated their role in new global trade routes, Ecuador continues to operate without a national logistics strategy capable of guiding decisions and investment with a long-term vision.

Some export sectors showed continuity, partly due to the stability provided by dollarization. However, without a national strategy that integrates infrastructure, technology, and trade with a forward-looking approach, these efforts lose momentum. The cost is reflected in operational inefficiencies, logistics expenses misaligned with Ecuador’s real export capacity, and structural barriers that prevent scaling value-added exports into global markets.

Most concerning is that the country continues to operate under assumptions that no longer apply. Disruptions are no longer exceptions. They are the new normal. Prolonged conflicts, trade blockages, stricter environmental regulations, and growing technological concentration among a few global players now define the landscape.

2026 requires a different stance.
 When the terrain changes, insisting on outdated maps only leads further away from the destination. This is not a year to consolidate minimum gains. It is a turning point.

The assessment is clear. Ecuador needs to evolve its logistics model toward anticipation and real adaptability. This is not about reacting, but about preparing. To achieve this, logistics must stop being treated as a technical issue and start being understood as a national strategic advantage.

Where we really stand

A critical reading of what 2025 put on the table

Logistics costs represent 17.9 percent of companies’ sales value in Ecuador, according to the National Logistics Survey 2023. This is not merely a statistic. It signals a structural loss of competitiveness. It is a silent burden for any company trying to grow, export, or simply remain viable.

In terms of port capacity, Guayaquil continues to concentrate most of the country’s maritime foreign trade, despite facing operational constraints. Posorja, with modern infrastructure and the ability to receive deep-draft vessels, represents a medium-term opportunity. Even so, Ecuador remains far from consolidating an integrated and truly interoperable logistics platform.

Challenges persist in traceability, intermodal integration, and the fluid connection between public and private stakeholders. Ecuador exports volume, but still struggles to scale value.

The year 2025 exposed both gaps and opportunities. Ecuador has a strategic geographic location, qualified logistics talent, and active international relationships. What it still lacks, and must build in 2026, is an operational consensus on where the country is heading in trade and logistics. Fragmented policies are insufficient. An integrated vision is required, where moving cargo is not the goal but the starting point to move industry, create value, and advance the country.

What follows is not a plan. It is a stance. Ecuador can continue operating as if there were still time, or accept that time has already passed. The terrain has changed. The decision now is whether to keep correcting errors gradually, or to redesign from the ground up with clarity and conviction.

Countries do not transform by accident. They transform when decision-makers stop treating challenges as external and begin to assume them as their own.